A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
