Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.