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Just 48 hours prior to the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible in which yesterday went somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed Zohran now. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. So there existed some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.